History cannot be used to predict the future

• History is mostly the study of surprising events, not generalistic trends

History and finance

• Finance and economics are fields driven by innovation and progress
  • Innovation and progress are “surprises” whose impact cannot be predicted by studying history
• Finance and economics are NOT hard sciences, which are generally easy to predict against

Sources

• (Done) The Psychology of Money - Highlights

Related Notes

• Experience leads to overconfidence more than forecasting ability
• We do not understand how the world works